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Choosing The Worst Possible Explanation

The Republicans won because they manipulated the election results. The air is polluted is because nobody cares. The reason she left me is I’m a loser. These are all explanations of events. And of course these are not the only possible explanations for those events. In fact, with a little time, most people could come up with many alternative explanations, some of them more likely to be true. But when you’re feeling down, you are more likely to explain setbacks with the worst possible explanation. And this tends to make you feel even more demoralized.

In other words, the more disheartened you get, the more likely you are to choose the worst possible explanation, which can make discouragement a self-perpetuating, self-feeding, downward spiral.

What can you do about it? Simple: Notice you have chosen a dire explanation, realize it’s not the only possible one, and make a list of other, less dire, more likely explanations. It always comes back to using the antivirus for your mind. Always do it in writing. It doesn’t take long and it works like magic.

Write down what you think caused your setback. This is your “explanation” of the setback. Now find something wrong with that explanation. One thing that might be wrong — one possible thought-mistake — is assuming your explanation is the only valid one when it isn’t. The solution is to make a list of possible alternative explanations. Think of something else (something less depressing) that explains the setback just as well.

For example, you start a new business, you’re feeling enthusiastic, but after a few months, things aren’t going as well as you’d hoped, and it slowly dawns on you it is going to take longer than you thought to make good money. This is a setback. Remember, a setback is anything that happens that you didn’t want to happen. Or anything that doesn’t happen that you wanted to happen. So this is a setback: You’re not making money as quickly as you thought.

You feel discouraged because you automatically explained the setback with the worst possible explanation, “People don’t want my product.” Okay, that’s an explanation of the setback. But it’s only one of many possible explanations. So you try to come up with alternative explanations. What other reasons would explain why you aren’t making as much money as you thought you would? You might write a list like this:

1. I didn’t know much about this business when I started, so my predictions in the beginning were bound to be wrong.

2. It takes awhile for people to find out about my business.

3. I didn’t spend enough money on advertising.

4. I spent money on the wrong kind of advertising.

5. My original expectations were unrealistic.

6. I’m just being impatient.

These are explanations of the setback. Any of these explanations would be less disheartening than the one you came up with first. Which explanation do you choose? It depends. If one of them seems more right than the others, you can choose that one. But you also have the option of not choosing any. In truth, your setback was probably caused by more than one factor, and you may not know which ones.

As far as your feeling of discouragement is concerned, it doesn’t really matter. As soon as you recognize your explanation isn’t the only one possible, you will almost immediately feel your mood lifting. Your head will come out of the darkness and it will become easier and easier to think of less catastrophic explanations than the first one you came up with. Your rising mood will start to work in your favor, creating an upward spiral.

False Implications

There are 22 virus definitions in all. This is number 8. The science of determination calls for a very simple task: When you feel discouraged, write down the negative thoughts you’re having, and then check them for validity. See if some of the thoughts you have are questionable. When you discover a negative or demoralizing thought that you now realize is not valid, you will immediately feel better. You will feel less discouraged. Your determination will be stronger.

You don’t need to memorize the 22 virus definitions, although it would be okay if you did. All you have to do, really, is get a feel for them. I’m describing each one so you can see what I mean by “thought-mistakes.”

The human brain isn’t perfect, and it makes mistakes in its thinking. When you assume something disheartening, it is entirely possible your assumption is a mistake. It might be inaccurate, or based on weak evidence, or not the only possible way to interpret the circumstances. If you never question your assumption, your determination and your feeling of motivation will be weak because of that false assumption. You can be defeated in your mind just as thoroughly as if your assumption was true.

So take the time when you feel demoralized (or not as motivated as you once were), and write down your explanations for your setbacks and then see if there is anything wrong with them. Look at the evidence you have for your negative assumptions. Is it enough evidence? Would it convince a jury?

Even if you have plenty of evidence for an explanation and even if it’s the only explanation you can think of, what you think your explanation implies may be mistaken or unnecessarily self-defeating. This is the mistake of “false implications.”

For example, let’s say you want “peace on earth.” You’re an activist, a protester, and you work toward a more peaceful world. But of course, you see the news and read reports of wars around the world. This is a setback. It makes you feel discouraged. You write down your negative thoughts. You write down what you think caused the setback. So you write, “Violence is the human condition.” That’s your explanation of the setback.

You then try to see if there is anything wrong with your negative thought. First you look at the evidence, and discover that unfortunately, you have plenty of evidence. Wars have been fought since the beginning of history. But then you look at the implications of your negative thought. The thought implies that 1) nothing can change it, and 2) that love and kindness are not also the human condition. You realize that “nothing can change it” is probably not true. And that it is true that love and kindness are also part of the human condition. Once you realize the implications are false, the thought, “violence is the human condition” isn’t as disheartening. Your determination to work for peace returns when you realize the implications of your negative thought were false.

It is never the circumstances that make you feel discouraged. It is your thoughts about the circumstances. If you discover that your thoughts are not accurate or valid, your discouragement will vanish. You will feel more determination and motivation almost immediately.

Let’s look at another example. John and his wife are arguing. They’ve had the same argument about the same thing since they’ve been married. And nothing seems to change. It is frustrating, and John feels discouraged. He doesn’t think it’s ever going to change. His stomach is twisted in a knot and he feels like he can’t breathe. What does he do? He uses the antivirus for the mind.

So he sits down and writes out his negative thoughts. Specifically, he writes down what he thinks is causing the setback. He wants a happy marriage and this ongoing, unresolvable fight is the setback. It keeps ruining their affection for each other. What is causing this setback? He thinks, “I’m impatient. I have always been impatient. I’m just an impatient person.”

This statement, this assumption of his, contains more than one thought-mistake, but let’s just look at the implications of it. The implication is: He cannot become more patient. And that is probably not true. If he concentrated on become more patient, it is likely he would find ways and means. If he talked with people he knew who were patient and asked them how they think about things, he could probably find some good ideas to try. There are probably even books on the subject. If he looked into it, he would find lots of avenues he could pursue to develop more patience.

If these ongoing arguments are truly intolerable, his question should be, “Even though I have always been impatient, would I be willing to change that seemingly fixed characteristic, if it would make our marriage better?”

When you’re looking at your own explanations of setbacks, look at the evidence for your demoralizing thoughts, but also look at the implications of your thoughts. If you discover the implications are false, you will stop feeling disheartened and your determination will come back.

Read an example of false implications.

Self-Defeating Conclusions

Almost all the thought-mistakes on the list of virus definitions are some form of self-defeating conclusions. But this is a good one to look for on its own. For example, Jim’s boss is usually friendly, but today his boss seems unhappy. Jim immediately jumps to a negative conclusion: “I must have done something wrong. He seems mad at me.”

Jim’s boss is actually worried about his son. The look on the boss’s face has nothing to do with Jim. So Jim is feeling bad unnecessarily because of his thought-mistake. And his bad feelings might interfere with his work. It certainly doesn’t help him feel better or get more done. And to whatever degree it makes him feel worse or get less done, Jim’s conclusion is self-defeating.

Whether one of your conclusions is self-defeating or not is an entirely separate issue from whether your conclusion is true or not.

Some conclusions are verifiable. I have red hair. That’s a fact. You can verify it. But sometimes you don’t really know if a statement is true or false. For some statements, the question of true or false doesn’t even apply (for example, an overblown generalization such as, “society is evil” can’t be rationally argued one way or the other without being ridiculous). But if a negative thought is impairing your ability, it is counterproductive to keep thinking it, whether its truth or falsity can ever be determined.

For example, let’s say you’re lying in bed obsessing over the thought, “I’m an insomniac and will never again get a good night’s sleep.” The conclusion itself can keep you awake, so it is self-defeating to think it, whether it’s true or false. It’s a self-fulfilling prophesy.

Many pessimistic thoughts are like that: They are self-fulfilling and therefore not useful thoughts. They aren’t true or false. But they make themselves true by thinking them.

A woman wrote to me and said her grandmother always used to say, “Hell is right here on earth.” That is an example of a demoralizing explanation of setbacks. But is the explanation accurate? Is it true? You can’t really say.

So the question then becomes: Is the thought useful? Clearly that grandmother’s conclusion about life, the assumption she made that “hell is right here on earth,” produces a feeling of sadness, demoralization, hopelessness, and it would not help her overcome the challenges in her life. Not only that, but those feelings are unhealthy. And in fact, the grandmother was constantly grumpy and depressed.

With many of your conclusions, you can destroy them by simply realizing they are untrue. But if you can’t determine the truth of a negative conclusion, then look to see whether it is self-defeating. If you don’t know if it’s true, but you know it is self-defeating, then your belief in it will diminish as soon as you realize that fact.

Negative Guessing

This is the same sort of mistake as overcertainty. When you make a guess, it helps to realize it is just a guess, especially when your guess is making you feel defeated, demoralized, or otherwise unhappy. As soon as you realize your negative guess was just a guess, it takes the power out of it and you stop feeling bad.

I know a man who is cynical about the president, the governors, and politicians in general. He is glum often because he thinks he knows what they’re all after. He’s sure they’re only interested in money and power and they don’t care about “the people.”

In other words, he is guessing the motivations of politicians and then he becomes depressed and bitter because of his guess.

People do that not just about other people, but about future events. “It’s not going to work out,” you might hear someone say, and she believes her guess, so she doesn’t even try. She is guessing what’s going to happen in the future. She’s making a negative guess and feeling defeated by it.

Can you see how much differently it would be to not even not bother to guess but to merely acknowledge to yourself that you don’t know? If that’s the truth, if you really don’t know, then just admit it. Not knowing may make you feel an uncomfortable degree of curiosity or frustration, but it won’t make you feel demoralized or angry. It won’t make you want to give up on a goal.